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one reason we were asked to maximize the return subject to a probability of exceeding the cost of debt constraint was because the cost of debt constraint is not binary. in fact, to make the problem work, you have to assume that the cost of debt constraint is not binary, it is a continuous function of debt.
another way to express this is that in each state, the probability of exceeding the cost of debt constraint is lower than for the previous state. so you might be in the state where you have $1 billion of debt at 10% interest with $20 billion in equity and then you might be in the next state with $300 million of debt and $4 billion of equity.
indeed, when you apply the formulas, the cost of debt constraint changes with the level of debt. you must be careful in your solutions, and you must have your spreadsheet say that you consider only states with positive debt, but you might have to put in a few catch-all states.
finally, for those of you who got the live version of the class but not the webcast, i wanted to share some thoughts on how that webcast went. netflix is an interesting company and it is fun to discuss when the production, distribution and exhibition of content is a separate business as opposed to a cost center. the notion of separating risk and reward is a little clearer in the studio than in the tv business. we briefly discussed why the studio business should be valued at a lower cost of capital than the tv business, but i think that it is worthwhile to delve into it a bit in greater detail. in the webcast, we discussed the need to get rid of the business risk premium. i think that one way to do that is to separate risk from reward.
the studio business is risky; the risk comes from revenues that don’t go up and the reward comes from the revenue growth that is caused by the studio program. with fixed costs, there is little space for upside growth. however, there is large potential for downside growth as measured by the cost of financing (my personal favorite metric for measuring downside potential). this risk is asymmetric as it is less likely to get reversed.
that might lead us to wonder if we might be looking at the “risk to downside risk” instead of the “risk to upside potential”, which is what we really need to think about if we are going to get a measure of the cost of capital (and you are actually supposed to be doing this in the first place). i think that we need to think about what we are actually trying to model. i think that is what the studio business provides, the ability to “get deals done”. while we don’t know what deal they will make in a couple of months or years, when they do make a deal, they have “the house of cards effect” that increases the revenues. that effect is asymmetric and is not a constant effect. we might also be interested in the business that their customers use netflix because they have been leveraging the studio business.
while the risk on the front end is asymmetric, the upside on the back end is symmetric and hence is the main driver of upside potential. so, in a sense, it might be useful to think about the studio business as providing potential upside and netting out risk by getting more deals done. while we don’t know what deal they are going to get for each deal in which they play a role, we can calculate their expected costs and expected cash flows and sum it up with their maximum upside potential.
this is an example of how when people are talking about risk and reward, they are really thinking about upside and downside to downside risk instead of the upside and downside potential. hence, i think that it is great that you have a chance to spend the time on the project. take advantage of it. i hope that it is useful.
it is also nice to see that it is still getting used by students. the number of responses this week that you can see in the project section is almost the same as the number of responses we had in 2013. that is great. i also like that we are able to increase the number of students this year and hope that you do well in the class. see you at the review or at the quiz.
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